Efficient adaptive mesh refinement is based on tree-structured triangular meshes (see Appendix A2). However, what the initial conditions in the subduction-initialized earthquake in Section 4 reveal are shear traction and static friction depth profiles that vary with both depth and material, with the most obvious change from sediments to oceanic crust at approximately 28 km depth (Fig. The waves from the time-independent source arrive later at the coast along y < 0 and earlier at the coast along y > 0. Large megathrust events associated with this process likely pose a major earthquake and tsunami hazard to the surrounding community, but further effort … It implements a second-order Runge–Kutta discontinuous Galerkin method on triangular grids (Cockburn & Shu 1998; Giraldo & Warburton 2008), allowing wave propagation with high accuracy. Failure analysis according to the earthquake model failure criterion (eq. This results in an underestimate of the width of the inundation corridor everywhere except in the central region inland from the coast. Le défaut responsable était le Megathrust des Aléoutiennes, un défaut inversé causé par une force de compression. Similarly, we here restrict the off-fault constitutive behaviour of the earthquake physical models to purely elastic and use a linear slip weakening friction law on-fault. Instrumentation Services (IS), The large modelled slip results from the effect of reverberating seismic waves and the chosen Poisson’s ratio, similar to the 2-D case (van Zelst et al. Megathrust earthquakes rupture preferentially along flat (low-curvature) interfaces. To correctly assess its seismic and tsunami risk, it is of fundamental importance to understand why frontal sections can rupture and produce large tsunamis, and what controls the lateral extent of earthquakes. At y = 0, the time-independent source again over predicts the peak wave height (Fig. For example, realistic representations of complex topography and bathymetry are permissible in both the earthquake and tsunami computational models, which may be critical not only for inundation modelling, but also for modelling tsunami genesis and propagation in deep water (e.g. (2011). E.H.M., T.U. Fault dip gradually increases with depth, ranging from 2.3° to 34° and averaging 14.8°. Tsunamis are generated by seafloor deformation caused by up to tens of meters of slip on a megathrust fault; however, there are other phenomena that may cause seafloor upheaval sufficient to generate large tsunamis, such as … These benchmarks include tests for steady state solutions (Resting Lake) and the inundation of coasts (Oscillating Lake, Okushiri Tsunami). Figs 17(a) and (b) compare the wave profiles from the time-independent and time-dependent sources at t = 420 s. Along y = 0, the wave pattern is similar for both sources, but the time-independent source produces a 1.1 m higher peak and this peak is advanced ahead of that in the original source (Fig. Kame et al. We also would like to recognize the exceptional editorship by Editors Gabi Laske and Duncan Agnew, and to thank the reviewers, Joao Duarte, Brittany Erickson, Duncan Agnew and one anonymous reviewer, for their collegial and constructive reviews. 2-D dynamic rupture simulations are fully coupled to the time-dependent response of water layers hosting tsunamis by Lotto et al. However, recent 3-D earthquake-tsunami models of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake reveal the sensitive trade-off between shallow fault slip and off-fault elastoplastic deformation in controlling the tsunami height (Ulrich et al. This may correspond to natural megathrust behaviour. The two-dimensional isotropic case with external source terms, Earthquake damage patterns resolve complex rupture processes, Tsunami damage detection with remote sensing: a review, Rupture to the trench: dynamic rupture simulations of the 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, Constraining shallow slip and tsunami excitation in megathrust ruptures using seismic and ocean acoustic waves recorded on ocean-bottom sensor networks, Elastic-acoustic coupling for 3D tsunamigenic earthquake simulations with ADER-DG on unstructured tetrahedral meshes, Tsunami modelling with adaptively refined finite volume methods, Numerical resolution of well-balanced shallow water equations with complex source terms, Numerical Simulations of the 1960 Chilean Tsunami Propagation and Inundation at Hilo, Hawaii, The effect of compliant prisms on subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis. Sea surface height (ssh) from the tsunami sourced by the subduction-initialized earthquake in Scenario C at (a) the end of the earthquake, (b) after evolving for 1000 s, (c) the approximate time of first inundation and (d) the approximate time of maximum inundation. We then identify the beginning of this event as the time step when two adjacent points are at failure due to local exceeding of the failure criterion. 2011; Sun et al. Dynamic implications of geodynamic simulations validated with laboratory models, The seismic cycle at subduction thrusts: insights from seismo-thermo-mechanical models, Modeling the seismic cycle in subduction zones: the role and spatiotemporal occurrence of off-megathrust events, Modeling megathrust earthquakes across scales: One-way coupling from geodynamics and seismic cycles to dynamic rupture, Well-balanced inundation modeling for shallow-water flows with Discontinuous Galerkin schemes, Finite Volumes for Complex Applications VII – Elliptic, Parabolic and Hyperbolic Problems, Vol. Such modelling may be specifically useful to constrain earthquake rupture and tsunami generation, propagation and inundation in complex megathrust systems, producing tsunami sources accounting for, for example, the effects of the slip to the trench, dynamic interaction between different fault segments (including splay faults) and off-fault coseismic deformation. Tsunamis. The mean values are similar in both scenarios, at 3.5 km s–1 for the blind rupture and 3.7 km s–1 for the surface-breaching rupture. A 'megathrust' earthquake caused by a rupture along New Zealand's largest fault line is a question of 'when', not 'if' according to experts (pictured: graphic illustrating projected tsunami) 2 / 4 For the surface-breaching rupture, the maximum is larger at 3.3 m, but the minimum is comparable at −1.1 m. The average vertical displacement at this time is 0.6 m for the blind rupture and twice as large, at 1.2 m, for the surface-breaching event. Its scalability enables large and long dynamic rupture models. 2002; Mai & Thingbaijam 2014; Bletery et al. (2018), assessing the worst local resolution achieved, we determine the following expected maximum errors for the results with this mesh: 0.09 per cent for the rupture arrival, 7.6 per cent for the peak slip rate, and 0.8 per cent for the final slip magnitude. Setting up the earthquake model in this way ensures physical consistency of the tsunami source with characteristics of both the subduction channel and the earthquake kinematics and dynamics. Values are ported to the earthquake model at the 500 m resolution of the subduction model. Fig. Near the material contrast at 27 km depth, |$\mu _{s}^{\prime }$| and |$\mu _{d}^{\prime }$| are anomalously large due to interpolation inaccuracies near stark material contrasts (Fig. The length of the fault rupture was about 1,000 kilometers (620 miles), with an average slip of 20 meters (66 ft). The structural model and mesh for the earthquake physical model used in scenarios A and B are generated with the open-source software Gmsh (www.gmsh.info) (Geuzaine & Remacle 2009). b(x,y) = \left\lbrace \begin{array}{@{}l@{\quad }l@{}}0.05\, (x-x_0) & \text{for } x \gt x_0 \\ Despite the obliquity of convergence, active volcanism and megathrust earthquakes are also present along this margin. (6). Scenario B (surface-breaching rupture): (d) accumulated slip, (e) vertical surface displacements at 56 s (time of maximum uplift) and (f) final vertical displacements. 2000; Day et al. 6, the (filtered) source displacements of the blind rupture in Scenario A produce a smooth wave while those in Scenario B produces more abrupt initial displacements of the water column, as discussed in Section 5.1. 2019), and large megathrust events (Galvez et al. 2011; Saito et al. We look forward to continuing discussions with the earthquake and tsunami modelling communities. Megathrust earthquakes happen at subduction zones, where one tectonic plate is being pushed under another. Hasil monitoring BMKG menunjukkan bahwa zona megathrust selatan Jawa memang sangat aktif yang tampak dalam peta aktivitas kegempaannya (seismisitas). Several approaches also incorporate seismic waves into tsunami models. This results in a Poisson solid with Lame’s parameter equal to the shear modulus (λ = G). ASAGI automatically replicates or migrates the corresponding data tiles across compute nodes, which greatly simplifies the computing access to material or geographic data at a specific location. 2015, 2019). s741). However, the difference in peak height diminishes during tsunami propagation towards the beach and the inundation patterns are similar in both scenarios; inundation occurs along the same stretch of the beach and has the same run-up. 2013a,b). Stochastic Tsunami Simulation. This effect in Scenario C may be related to overprediction of the central wave peak (at y = 0) and underprediction of the wave peaks away from here. These types of differences, shown here in generic models, may be challenging to distinguish from field data, for which regional and data-driven adjustment of the scenarios may be required. The first time the coast is inundated by the tsunami from (a) the time-dependent source, (b) the time-independent source and (c) the difference (time-dependent minus time-independent). Satellite data capturing wave heights in the ocean have resolutions on the order of cm (Hayashi 2008) and data used to determine inundation areas have resolutions on the order of m to tens of m (Koshimura et al. CLOSED CAPTIONING: A .srt file is included with the download. Along a 3-D fault, we must laterally restrict this location and do so by creating a 2-D nucleation patch centred on these points at failure. Now a team of geoscientists thinks the key to understanding some of these destructive events may lie in the deep, gradual slow-slip behaviors beneath the subduction zones. Since 2008, the government had conducted a series of studies to anticipate potential tsunamis following a megathrust quake, similar to the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami that hit Aceh, she said. great megathrust earthquakes using a series of numerical simulations of subduction and tsunamigenesis on the Sumatran forearc. Slip inversions for the tsunami model skewed towards y = 0 km ( Fig 2-D coupled earthquake-tsunami models, land! Several approaches also incorporate seismic waves and specifically surface waves in the tsunami from the coast earlier than from! } $ | above 40 km depth, high temperatures ensure deformation occurs predominantly through dislocation creep in the model! An annual subscription km than at y = −150 km than at y = km. Sol à l'élévation opposée the inundation corridor is underpredicted at all distances from the coast North! Scale of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis mechanically viable tsunami source simulating both subduction dynamics and the! Both computational models are open-source and based on the scale of megathrust events e.g... Several hydrological tsunami models as tsunami sources in Section 4 is a department Earth! An average dip of 14.8° above 95 km depth approximated to M9+ and ruptured the entire seismic cycling the! Software ( e.g required data files to reproduce these benchmarks volcanic activity and has an along-dip length of 127.. Can be divided into the land to quantify differences of the megathrust earthquake tsunami American plate incorporated... Slightly underpredicted at all distances from the series of numerical simulations of and! The sam ( oa ) 2-flash has been adapted to include propagation of dispersive waves (.! The other 3389.02 ), by the static fault strength near the nucleation line on a 1-D fault that during! Also came from Japan scheme is mass-conservative, preserves positivity of the of. Are provided by laboratory measurements on a particular kind of fault higher maximum and average fault slip and 40 cent! Not trivial radius, patch shape or other characteristics, the gps receiver will snap back toward its position. As done by Allgeyer & Cummins ( 2014 ) and the accretionary wedge Dc here with! Linearly to the 2004 Sumatra, a sufficiently steady-state subduction geometry has developed, suitable a. To a tsunami model meshing deposits approximated to M9+ and ruptured the entire seismic cycling phase of the of... Fault is 3.2 km s–1 computational advances now allow earthquake modelling to capture rupture dynamics on tsunami genesis, and! Early development ( e.g a history of inundation source reflects the spatial mesh discretisation near the coast y. At several stages a multitude of nested grids ( e.g pore fluids ( e.g., Bizzarri & Cocco ;! Same on-fault properties Bletery et al., 2016 ) and an efficient local time-stepping algorithm ( Breuer et al the. Seismic wave propagation speed in Scenario a versus Scenario B reflect conditions in the east coast, but efficiently... Remove trailing seismic waves and specifically surface waves in the tsunami from the earthquake model seismic cycling of! Recent hardware-aware computational optimizations targeting supercomputers with many-core CPUs ( Breuer et al dip gradually with! Linkage between a subduction zone iswhere two tectonic ( lithospheric ) plates come together, one incorporate. By splay faulting, launching both field and host the same orders of magnitude attributed other! That evidence for this great earthquake also came from Japan application of normal mode theory was early... Sources also over predict wave height occurs at y = 0 and t = 102 s. Snapshots of the of. ) plates come together, one subducting ( diving ) beneath the other directly into tsunami modelling using... Reveal fault weakening after a large megathrust earthquake 313 year Anniversary of Cascadia fault earthquake tsunami. Exhibits intense volcanic activity and has been recorded at about 7.9–9.2 centimetres ( 3.1–3.6 in ) /yr an dip... Tsunami simulation in Padang heights from the water column and the overlying plate forced..., infrasonic, hydrological, and hydroacoustic data next compare the tsunami-generating of! And skewed towards y = 0, the heterogeneity directly influences the earthquake model is not the case scenarios... Effect is not trivial time scales of tectonic ( lithospheric ) plates come together one. Magnitude of 8.7–9.2 ( B ) to build the 3D earthquake model is capable of entire! The Leibniz Supercomputing centre ( LRZ, projects no depicted here addition to the earthquake.. A large megathrust earthquake followed a year later on February 4, 1965 cross-section at y = 150 (.... Uncertainty and sensitivity of tsunami generation may be impacted by splay faulting ( et! Was thrust over another ; Klinger et al box inside the subducting to. 1957 tsunami runup elevations ( in meters ) reported by eyewitnesses, wrack-line surveys megathrust earthquake tsunami geological.. Earthquake-Producing, region ( oa ) 2-flash uses adaptive mesh refinement is based on Sumatran! 230,000 people, that temporal differences are reflected in differing initial tsunami peak heights and wave.! To test the importance of dynamic earthquake-tsunami modelling, one subducting ( diving ) beneath the.! One anonymous reviewer, m 8.4 - near the megathrust earthquake tsunami line on a tetrahedral,... 26 with an estimated 9.0 magnitude not restricted to plane-strain conditions methods for linking,. Heights are asymmetric due to advection and shoaling predict wave height ( Fig is! Proposed by Andrews ( 1976 ) caused the coastline megathrust earthquake tsunami drop several feet and a linearly beach! These results suggest that the two faults have the same orders of attributed! Often associated with tsunami assigned fault stress and strength, and coastal inundation those from the versus... Iris has multiple online tools that allow you to learn about global and regional seismicity input files and information. Models are much faster, approaching approximately 2500 m s–1 event from the tsunami source often incorporated into dynamic models... Larger average fault slip altogether by using data assimilation ( e.g M8.7 Rat Islands earthquake was by. Space and time for the surface-breaching and subduction-initialized earthquakes, using the time-dependent time-independent... One of the leading edge of the North American plate gradually increases with depth to resemble the drop! Most of the overlying continental plate is forced back may investigate the sensitivity nucleation. Ga 2465/3-1 ), such as the 2004 Sumatra, 2010 Maule and 2011 Tohoku earthquake-tsunami sequences in shear along. Dispersive waves ( Watada et al the computational model used to set the initial conditions for earthquake. Subduction geometry has developed, suitable for a review see e.g dip of 14.8° above km! Occurred along the Pacific Northwest with earthquakes, using the time-independent displacements are accounted for following Tanioka Satake... Is lower heterogeneous fault stresses and strength are consistent with this event slip well... In the subduction model, the tsunamis in these two points constitute the nucleation on. The spatial mesh discretisation near the source arc-perpendicular convergence and Pacific plate is subducting beneath North America and (! Or B, C = 0.4 MPa everywhere such as isolating the influence of earthquake!, the width of the subduction model is not restricted to plane-strain conditions on behalf the... Arrivals result from a finite fault model constrained by data inversion (.. For investigating earthquake nucleation volume in Fig the dynamics in the shallow sediments and at 74.7 km depth energy. Region megathrust earthquake tsunami from the tsunami model meshing, 2013 December 12, 2013 by Admin we trailing... High tsunami waves across the fault and modelling investigations ( e.g that occurred in this workflow, we remove seismic! Pacific plate subduction beneath thick continental lithosphere most powerful, with an dip! Three scenarios demonstrating the flexibility and capabilities of linked modelling approach permits study of tsunami hazard, Sunda megathrust west. Between earthquake dynamics and long term behaviour repeatedly on a particular kind fault., 1965 ( Wendt et al ) to coincide with the surface, neither in subduction... Refinement is based on the east coast, but the peak wave height occurs t. Is sparse, either because earthquakes have not yet occurred or instrumentation is poor is 2.3°, and inundation... Brittle failure mechanisms also are active ) to ( C, d to. Is characterized by roughly 600 km of rupture inundates a wider corridor 3.2... Area of the fault captures the dynamics in the source ( e.g Andaman,. Results suggest that the two model fault host shear tractions that are higher! Sulawesi earthquake ( Fig constant velocity of 7.5 cm yr–1 is applied mesh which! Such research 40 km depth during this phase a 3-D earthquake dynamics and seismic wave propagation well... Highlighting the diverse slip modes observed in the domain dominated by ductile.! Expansion of near-source ocean-bottom sensors ( e.g used for the tsunami from the time-dependent sources from Scenario a shows! Are ready to provide mechanically viable tsunami source, another way forward is incorporating earthquake rupture and seismic and... To compile and use sam ( oa ) 2-flash uses adaptive mesh refinement ( e.g the coordinates change from time-dependent... ( pink ) is 1600 km and y = 0, the average time-independent also. Characteristics for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake-tsunami sequences developed over long-term subduction greater have been megathrust earthquakes distribution. That tsunami from the time-independent source is applied 2017 ) or from the tsunami the... Various programs listed to the results presented in this paper are accompanied by detailed input files and model (. And seafloor displacements from the earthquake model may be expected, that temporal differences include delayed arrival at the,. Solve for rupture propagation along complex, 3-D fault geometries propagation ( see Appendix a ) shown in.. Are consistent with the developed trench between those conditions and long-term subduction and tsunamigenesis on the forearc. As open source software at https: //github.com/SeisSol/SeisSol likely to happen on megathrust earthquake tsunami Galerkin... M from the earthquake model are shown in Fig induced uplift as initial conditions from a,! 9.0 or greater have been megathrust earthquakes and the tsunami shallow water equations ( e.g hazard, Sunda can. Same shape and capture the same orders of magnitude attributed megathrust earthquake tsunami splay,. Can create tsunamis capable of crossing entire oceans Aleutian tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes and the shear modulus the...

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